Although there are several players who would like to lay claim to the
top pick in the 2013 NBA draft, it is widely assumed that University of
Kentucky center Nerlens Noel will be the first name David Stern calls out on
June 27. On Tuesday, in a ceremony that will air at 8:30 p.m. Eastern time on
ESPN, the winner of the draft lottery will be announced.
Because they
had a league-worst 20-62 record in the regular season, the Orlando Magic are in
pole position to win the No. 1 pick. Behind them are the Charlotte Bobcats
(21-61), Cleveland Cavaliers (24-58), Phoenix Suns (25-57) and New Orleans
Pelicans (27-55).
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The question
of who will be picking first will be answered on Tuesday. The more pressing
question is who needs it the most.
The 2013
draft is unique in that it doesn't feature any players who are projected to be
superstars. There's no Anthony Davis, no Kyrie Irving, no John Wall and no
Blake Griffin. It's unclear when Noel will even make his NBA debut — he hasn't
played since tearing the anterior cruciate ligament in his left knee in
February.
Because of
this, the team that lands him cannot expect immediate results. It takes time
for rookies to adapt from the college game to the pro game in the best of
circumstances, and factoring in recovery from a serious knee injury won't help
matters. The team that lands him cannot be one that is placing all of their
future hopes in him.
These are
the teams that could benefit the most from landing the top pick:
1.
Phoenix Suns (11.9% chance of winning draft lottery)
The Suns
recently hired former Boston Celtics assistant Ryan McDonough as general
manager, and he wants to rebuild through the draft. Phoenix has a solid
starting point guard in Goran Dragic, but otherwise they have needs virtually
everywhere. Landing the first pick in the draft would give fans something to be
excited about for the first time since the departure of Amar'e Stoudemire in
2010 ended their run of playoff contention.
2.
Charlotte Bobcats (19.9%)
The Bobcats
are due for a bit of luck after missing out on Anthony Davis last season
despite winning just seven games in the lockout-shortened season. No matter
what Noel is able to give them next season, long-term he represents a major
upgrade from the likes of Brendan Haywood and DeSagana Diop. Charlotte already
has two promising young players in point guard Kemba Walker and forward Michael
Kidd-Gilchrist. Adding Noel in the middle could give them a solid foundation to
build around.
3.
Orlando Magic (25.0%)
The Magic
have the best statistical odds to win the pick, and one year after trading
Dwight Howard to the Los Angeles Lakers, the prospect of landing another
franchise center is tempting. GM Rob Hennigan has made it clear that he wants
to take a long-term approach to rebuilding the team. He's already assembled a
roster of talented young prospects like Nikola Vucevic, Tobias Harris and
Andrew Nicholson. The presence of Vucevic at would mean they could bring Noel
along slowly in his rehab, and then possibly move one of them in a trade down
the road.
4.
Sacramento Kings (6.3%)
Winning the
No. 1 pick in the draft would cap off a terrific week for the Kings, now that
they're officially staying in Sacramento.
5.
Cleveland Cavaliers (15.6%)
Noel would
make a terrific frontcourt partner for Tristan Thompson and represent another
solid young piece to build around Kyrie Irving.
6.
Washington Wizards (3.7%)
Some new
blood in the frontcourt would be welcome in Washington, currently rolling with
the aging combo of Nene and Emeka Okafor.
7. Dallas
Mavericks (0.6%)
Landing Noel
would give Mark Cuban a viable backup plan in case Dallas doesn't lure Dwight
Howard.
8.
Toronto Raptors (0.7%)
The presence
of Jonas Valanciunas and Amir Johnson means the Raptors don't have a need for
Noel, but they owe their pick to the Oklahoma City Thunder if it falls outside
the top three. This might be their best chance to keep it.
9. New
Orleans Pelicans (8.8%)
The Pelicans
already have one highly-touted young big man in Davis, but Noel's ceiling is a
lot higher than that of Robin Lopez.
10.
Detroit Pistons (3.6%)
Detroit is
set in the frontcourt for years to come with Greg Monroe and Andre Drummond,
but landing the pick could give them a valuable trade chip.
11.
Philadelphia 76ers (0.8%)
New GM Sam
Hinkie might not be keen on drafting a center with knee problems after this
year's Andrew Bynum debacle, but Noel is younger and would cost less.
12.
Portland Trail Blazers (1.1%)
The Blazers
need a starting center badly, but drafting a 19-year-old coming off knee
surgery is a road they've been down recently with Greg Oden.
13. Utah Jazz (0.5%)
The Jazz
have two promising young big men in Derrick Favors and Enes Kanter, and also
have to make decisions on free agents Paul Millsap and Al Jefferson. Adding
Noel into the mix makes things even more crowded.
14.
Minnesota Timberwolves (1.7%)
The
Timberwolves were supposed to be a playoff contender this season, but were done
in by injuries. Adding another layer of uncertainty is not ideal.
The 2013 NBA
draft isn't going to be a franchise-changer for any team, but winning the first
pick could aid with the rebuilding efforts of several teams that badly need it.
On Tuesday, the winner will be revealed and the scouting begins in earnest.
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